Academy Awards Predictions (LIVEJOURNAL)

I saw more movies this year than any other, so I think I can make predictions with relative accuracy. After the awards are given I’ll figure out my “percent of correctness” and post it. I’ve never done this before so it should be interesting. Please note that I DID NOT see all of the movies nominated. Yeah, it makes my choices kind of pointless, but I am going by word-of-mouth and reviews on each movie as well.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Johnny Depp – PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL
Ben Kingsley – HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
Jude Law – COLD MOUNTAIN
Bill Murray – LOST IN TRANSLATION
Sean Penn – MYSTIC RIVER
Personally I’m rooting for Johnny Depp, but I’d bet my money on Jude Law or Sean Penn. Let’s go with Jude Law on this one.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alec Baldwin – THE COOLER
Benicio Del Toro – 21 GRAMS
Djimon Hounsou – IN AMERICA
Tim Robbins – MYSTIC RIVER
Ken Watanabe – THE LAST SAMURAI
Ken Watanabe was excellent in Last Samurai, but it IS his first time being nominated. Usually first timers don’y get the gold, so I’m betting on Tim Robbins, last nominated in 1995, for Mystic River.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Keisha Castle-Hughes – WHALE RIDER
Diane Keaton – SOMETHING’S GOTTA GIVE
Samantha Morton – IN AMERICA
Charlize Theron – MONSTER
Naomi Watts – 21 GRAMS
I really can’t judge this one. I haven’t seen any of these movies, but intuition points to Diane Keaton.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Shohreh Aghdashloo – HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
Patricia Clarkson – PIECES OF APRIL
Marcia Gay Harden – MYSTIC RIVER
Holly Hunter – THIRTEEN
Renée Zellweger – COLD MOUNTAIN
Easy. Zellweger all the way.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
BROTHER BEAR
FINDING NEMO
THE TRIPLETS OF BELLEVILLE
Like this is even a contest? Finding Nemo is going to win this, no question.
ART DIRECTION
GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING
THE LAST SAMURAI
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
SEABISCUIT
Return of the King.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
CITY OF GOD
COLD MOUNTAIN
GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
SEABISCUIT
Cold Mountain. Although I’m tempted to pick Seabiscuit because of the difficult camera work involved in capturing the horse races AND making them interesting to watch.
COSTUME DESIGN
GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING
THE LAST SAMURAI
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
SEABISCUIT
Last Samurai or Return of the King. I’ll pick the latter, but it’s close.
DIRECTING
CITY OF GOD
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
LOST IN TRANSLATION
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
MYSTIC RIVER
Peter Jackson for Return of the King. Bet your house on it.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BALSEROS
CAPTURING THE FRIEDMANS
THE FOG OF WAR
MY ARCHITECT
THE WEATHER UNDERGROUND
Capturing the Friedmans was distrubing yet powerful, which is always a good mix. It’s the only one of these I saw, so I’m voting for it.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
ASYLUM
CHERNOBYL HEART
FERRY TALES
No idea. This is a total guess…Asylum.
FILM EDITING
CITY OF GOD
COLD MOUNTAIN
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
SEABISCUIT
NOT Return of the King, if only because the ending (or endingS) could have been editted down a bit. I’d say Cold Mountain because it rocked the Globes.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
THE BARBARIAN INVASIONS
EVIL
THE TWILIGHT SAMURAI
TWIN SISTERS
ŽELARY
Another total guess: The Barbarian Invasions.
MAKEUP
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL
Return of the King again, no doubt.
MUSIC (SCORE)
BIG FISH
COLD MOUNTAIN
FINDING NEMO
HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
Big Fish or Return of the King. Musicals tend to fair well (ie Chicago, Moulin Rouge) so Big Fish has the better odds.
MUSIC (SONG)
“Into the West” – THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
“A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow” – A MIGHTY WIND
“Scarlet Tide” – COLD MOUNTAIN
“The Triplets of Belleville” – THE TRIPLETS OF BELLEVILLE
“You Will Be My Ain True Love” – COLD MOUNTAIN
“Into the West” will win. Or else.
BEST PICTURE
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
LOST IN TRANSLATION
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
MYSTIC RIVER
SEABISCUIT
Master and Commander / Seasbiscuit were a little slow at parts. Mystic River and Lost in Transaltion are both brilliant. But…….RETURN OF THE KING HAS THIS NAILED!!
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
BOUNDIN’
DESTINO
GONE NUTTY
HARVIE KRUMPET
NIBBLES
Rock, paper, scizzors, shoot…Boundin’.
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
DIE ROTE JACKE (The Red Jacket)
MOST (The Bridge)
SQUASH
(A) TORZIJA ([A] Torsion)
TWO SOLDIERS
Uh…Two Soldiers?
SOUND EDITING
FINDING NEMO
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL
Master and Commander. If only because it deserves something.
SOUND MIXING
THE LAST SAMURAI
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL
SEABISCUIT
This is a tough one. Big time. I saw all these movies and they all deserve it. Return of the King will probably get it though.
VISUAL EFFECTS
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL
Return of the King. Yeah, I said it again. What? WHAT?
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
AMERICAN SPLENDOR
CITY OF GOD
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
MYSTIC RIVER
SEABISCUIT
This is the only category that American Splendor was nominated for, and I loved this movie. Badda bing, my vote is cast.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
THE BARBARIAN INVASIONS
DIRTY PRETTY THINGS
FINDING NEMO
IN AMERICA
LOST IN TRANSLATION
Finding Nemo or Lost in Translation. The latter received a ton of Golden Globes, so thats my pick.
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